March Investment Thesis
Risk off is the new risk on
Content & Updates
Starting with a reminder that the website is live and accessible for free. It shares my investment thesis, positions and performances for all investments shared.
https://thefewbetsthatmatter.com/
It is not a representation of my personal portfolio, but a representation of my stock picking and investing system. It is a centralized place for strategies and follow-ups, more organized than a Substrack page.
Content Review
Going back to my February investment plan, I’d say many of the risks materialized this month. The summary was liquidity issues and narrative shifts. Since then, tech has been flat while other defensive names I shared rallied, and names I wanted to avoid fell sharply.
I think my write-up is clear: I do not intend to buy risk assets. It doesn’t mean I won’t hold any, it means I do not plan to accumulate or start new position in the sector, not without crystal clear sign of demand at least. I need the market to show love to hold my positions and be more aggressive.
Crypto kept crumbling, which confirms the importance of cutting selling names that don’t follow the system. Holding them would have been costly, with Strategy down ~15% in a single month for example. These assets will go higher long term, but it is better to be out during uncertain times.
We also saw the famous social media darlings I mentioned underperform, some getting completely demolished. Personal conviction is not an investment thesis, even if many believe it is. Holding those names likely destroyed portfolios in just a few weeks: Adobe -12%, MercadoLibre -19%, Duolingo -26%, Hims -45%, PayPal -13%, Uber -9%, Meta -9%. All had clear signs of weakness or broken thesis.
The only one that performed well was Netflix after announcing it wouldn’t buy Warner Bros, on which I shared my thoughts here.
I share this to highlight the importance of following a system. Opinion alone will never be enough to make money in the market because you will be wrong more often than right. Systems protect us from our biases and ego. I dislike selling companies I believe in, but I believed in most the names above and my portfolio would be broken today if I had not sold them.
On the contrary, names I don’t particularly like but shared in January performed well: Darling +16%, Nutrien +5%, Smith +9%, UPS +10%. Earlier names like Schlumberger and Halliburton continued rising. Only Novo performed terribly, and I shared that the bull case was shattered after terrible guidance.
Opinions don’t matter. Systems do.
I also shared a piece explaining how markets have changed since Buffett and why the admiration of his methods may be a mistake, in my opinion. Feedback was positive and very negative, but I believe it is a piece worth reading.
With that said, let’s review market conditions and then conclude with my portfolio and outlook for next month.
Macro, Economy & Geopolitics
I started writing this article Thursday & had finished this section before the weekend, just before Trump launched his operation in Iran. So let’s write it all again.
Edit: I finished this portion Saturday morning and had to rework it Sunday morning as the U.S. are apparently capable of overthrowing a regime in less than 24h.
Kinda impressive.
So the situation changed since I wrote it first & I wouldn’t expect the market to react too violently now that Ali Khamenei and much of the Iranian decision-making sphere are confirmed dead. I’ll still leave most of the Saturday written context and will only change the investing portion.
A(nother) War in the Middle East
AS USUAL: this is a tense geopolitical situation and everyone has an opinion on what is right or wrong. I have mine, you have yours, but they don’t matter here, alright?
We’re here to talk about what is happening and how it affects investing, not to fight over personal views on Iran or Israel.
Don’t twist my words. Focus on investing consequences, not opinions.
The Context - Written Saturday
Trump said for months he’d launch another attack if they didn’t reach an agreement with Iran’s regime, mostly about renouncing their nuclear program. Tensions were already prettwe’ve had tensions for years, even more since the attack on Israel back in October 2023 which started escalations and even an American stealth strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Trump said for months he would act if no agreement was reached with Iran’s regime, mostly about renouncing their nuclear program, and we’ve had tensions for years - even more since the attack on Israel in October 2023 which triggered escalations & even an American stealth strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
But this is different. This isn’t a stealth attack, this is Trump telling Iranian people they will get the help they have been asking for years to overthrow the regime in place and bring changes.
This is a declaration of war against that regime with a very clear objective for the west: disarm the country and stop their nuclear progress at worst, completely overthrow the regime and replace it with a more peaceful one at best.
We are going to destroy their missiles and put their missile industry to the ground […] we are going to annihilate their navy, we are going to make sure their terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region and the world and we are going to make sure Iran never obtain nuclear weapons.
The life of American heroes may be lost and we may have American casualties, that often happens in war, but we’re doing this for the future.
To the members of the Islamic guard, the arm forces and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down the weapon and have complete immunity, or face certain death.
To the great proud people of Iran, the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered, don’t leave your home, it’s dangerous outside; bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished take over your government, it will be your to take. This will be probably your only chance for generation.
For many years you have asked for America’s help. You never got it. No President was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a President who is giving you want you want, so let’s see how you respond. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny.
This is the moment for action, do not let it pass.
I purposely left some harsh words because his speech was that harsh. Crystal clear on his intentions.
That being said, we know Trump’s method. Every impactful decision was taken on a Friday with a resolution before market’s open or rapidly after. It is a priority for the U.S. government to keep markets high as they are what make or break the economy.
Sunday edit: they indeed “resolved” the biggest part of their problem before market open.
His language doesn’t make it look like it will be swift, although they also said that they wouldn’t commit to a long war. At time of writing, Saturday morning in Europe, lots of strikes have been launched with American assets participating; they aren’t just helping Israel with ammunition and information. They are part of the strikes and are targeted by Iran’s strikes.
Iran is also targeting other countries as we’ve seen in Dubai, with drones apparently targeting civilian regions. This is about putting pressure on the U.S. by attacking “allied” countries with high political/financial capital. Great military strategy but not really great relationship strategy; hurting your neighbors rarely makes them like you more.
The situation in the Middle East is not what it used to be a decade or two ago, many actors are now focused on economic developments and peace, not fighting the west. Iran isn’t isolated but we shouldn’t expect the Middle East to rise to aid them against the U.S. as they could have done years ago. Even less while facing Iranian attacks on their population…
Russia and China are another story entirely.
China has always been an opportunistic country and will use the situation as it. They have commercial relations with Iran for “defensive” weapons & will certainly continue. Tensions could start if their relations hurts the U.S. actions or troops’ safety - selling offensive weapons for example. Until then, China should continue to play its role of a quiet giant; involved, but never too much and only for its own interests.
I also can already hear the war drums about Taiwan and how China will without any doubt use the actual tensions to invade the country. And I will as usual ignore that noise for now.
Russia is another story; they have been Iran’s support for longer in a proxy war to weaken the U.S., just like the U.S. used Ukraine - do not twist my words, and Iran has been a support of Russia during the Ukrainian war. Their relation is more important, and harder to manage as Russia has also been negotiating peace in Ukraine, without much success yet but talks exist, which is something. Pretty uncomfortable situation. It’ll be interesting to see what their actions say, but I wouldn’t expect much.
Investing Wise - Written Sunday
Most of the uncertainty is gone with Khamenei and his close sphere killed. The market could have worried about a war without swift success and collateral damages, impacts on the Strait of Hormuz where most of the oil traffic passes, pushing oil prices higher - which the market wouldn’t have liked.
This situation would have been dramatic for the markets. This scenario is much more unlikely without a strong governing entity in Iran.
Still, it is impossible to know what will happen. You know what you lose, never what you get. The removal of Khamenei doesn’t necessarily means peace and prosperity from Monday. It remains to be seen who will take the lead and what their objectives will be; if its army commander or someone with less restrain takes command, it could lead to a long fight still.
We still have uncertainty. Maybe less worries than if Khamenei held the reins. Nothing is certain. As I write this - Sunday lunch in Europe, missiles are still flying, commands of the Iranian regimes just went to the next one and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. The question is can this be sustained and for how long without a stable decisional structure in Iran.
There’s no point trying to predict Monday’s open, it will depend on what happens in the next hours and we could have another very eventful week end into a non eventful week. Or an eventful week. I talked often about weakness in the market lately and that could be another excuse for sellers to continue their biding.
I have no conclusion to give during uncertain times and as much as I like to share the situation as I see it, the only thing we can do as investors is follow our system, here to protect us from this kind of situation. If we bought great names at great prices and in great setups, we will be alright. If they break their setups, those names were maybe not as strong as we thought and that is fine. Decisions can be taken then.
In the meantime, we cannot anticipate the next days and even if I believe that we will see a “swift” resolution - and the last months showed it as Trump’s government has been lightning fast with its operations, we should remain cautious.
No point piling on risks.
Another “advice”: In this kind of situation, be mindful of what you read and where, as panic can spreads very fast from tabloids who sell by clicks. The situation is rarely as terrible as media makes it look like and we should stay away from all the panic and noise.
This is the kind of situation where mistakes are made.
Trust your system. I'll trust mine.
Macro & Other Subjects
Besides this situation, the month has globally been pretty calm. Most of the important data came from earnings and market’s reactions, and some specific sectors/names.
Macro
Macro wise, nothing changed compared to last month and I continue to believe that liquidity is slowing while opportunities emerge outside of the market, which hasn’t been the case for years with climbing interest rates. The conditions simply are not what they used to be so we shouldn’t expect the market to be.
The news of the month was the tariff mess which the market ignored. The Supreme Court judged tariffs illegal but concluded that the next steps will be messy and are out of their range of power...
“This is bad but this is done and we don’t know what to do from here.”
To which Trump decided that because his own court judged his politics illegal, he should add 10% tariffs on the world. Pretty special, but isn’t everything lately?
As I said in a note, there’s no saying if this ruling is positive or negative or if things will even change. It could trigger a massive liquidity inflow with billions of refunds to companies and individuals, or many problems as it also means all relocalization is useless - without tariffs everything can remain delocalized in Asia and such.
On macro, the Production Price Index came higher than expected meaning materials come at a higher price hence finished products will be sold at a higher price. This means inflation isn’t beaten yet and could slow the rate cuts cycle.
Market & Earnings
The S&P 500 is still close to all-time highs while tech and some growth names have been destroyed. Some portfolios are really bleeding, in the order of -50% or more over the last three months, while the S&P is down -1.7% from all-time highs...
This is what high beta and growth investing looks like. You don’t need to be a great stock picker when everything goes up due to constant and massive liquidity inflows. Things are very different when the music stops.
Nvidia is a great example. We don’t see such companies often; three years of beat and raise earnings, leaving the market in awe with constant growth & margins expansion. This stock, if the market was only about fundamentals, would have never stopped running and its latest quarter should have rocketed it to new highs.
It isn’t normal for such a company to still grow 70%+ and accelerate while expanding margins. This is unseen before.
But the market is about liquidity first, sentiment second and fundamentals third. If no one has money or the wish to buy that stock - and that can be because they struggle to see the upside or have better to do with their money, then the stock won’t go up.
There are no fundamental issues in AI, hardware and software. There are liquidity and sentiment issues. As I said in my previous write-up:
Pickiness is not a bull market sign, it is a low liquidity sign and we see it more.
Palantir is showing the same dynamic, with insane earnings and yet... A stock down -34% from ATH and -12% post-beat and raise earnings.
I won’t go over each name individually, but we have many examples; Arista Networks, Astera, AMD, SMCI, Google and Amazon who all reported very strong earnings and were not rewarded by the market for it, even being harshly punished in some cases, especially AsteraLabs which is down -35% after excellent print, only because they invest in their future while their actual products are in high demand.
Even names like Crowdstrike, Palo Alto and other key players for the AI security layer have seen their valuation reduced by 30% or more simply reacting to some silly ads from Claude about their new security-focused AI, as if this could replace complex interconnected network/AI security systems. Market participants know that, but it doesn’t matter; as momentum and sentiment dry, liquidity withdraws and goes where returns are. If the potential returns slow down, why stay?
Fundamentals are third, after liquidity and sentiment in short/medium term returns.
And so the tech sector continues to be “meh,” either flat or down but not up during the last months while fundamentals continue to be rock solid, with CapEx accelerating and even finally the great news that OpenAI completed its $100B funding round with key partners.
This would have rocketed the stock market in September as a renewed confidence in OpenAI’s capacity to pay their bills and commitments. But it wasn’t well received this year. Sentiment clearly shifted.
On the contrary, there were many names which were rewarded by the market even if their earnings weren’t that spectacular - nothing comparable to Palantir and Nvidia. Names like Cava (restaurant), Celsius (soft drinks), Crocs (footwear), Darling & Nutrien (materials), Columbia (sportswear), Moderna (healthcare), , Enphase and SolarEdge (energy). I have a longer list; no tech in it, nor in my screeners.
The market treated those names better than any excellent tech earnings. This speaks volume on where liquidity is going. The best illustration of this is gold, like for the last six months; it fell a large -21% in three days to climb it all back up the next 26 days. The largest swing ever seen on this asset.
I don’t expect this trend to stop if tensions with Iran aren’t resolved rapidly, although to be fair I don’t expect this trend to stop either way the demand for gold is structural, not just speculative - although we also see clear speculative behavior.
So if I were to listen to the market... I would certainly not be buying tech outside of a few exceptions still trading above their weekly 50 despite the late bloodbath and still printing healthy and strong earnings. The issue with those few names is that even if they look strong, their sector will drag them down on others’ weakness while the risk-reward is much better on other sectors.
My conclusion of this last months is that I see no point taking risks on tech, which is sold off despites great earnings, while defensive names or other sectors pump on correct earnings - sometimes even “meh” ones. I’ll let the market drag them down, I know enthusiasm will come back.
What matters is to be there when that happens.
Investing Plan & Watchlist
I had a few key changes since February which I have shared here and on the website. Some names had to be closed due to price action, others due to fundamentals. I sold entirely UiPath, Nebius, Alibaba and AsteraLabs, and ignored Novo Nordisk after the terrible earnings and guidance they shared.
I now own four stocks: Transmedics, Nordic Semiconductor, Lululemon, Huntsman Corporation.
Let’s detail everything.
Closed positions
Some will be very easy to explain, others will require a bit more words.
AsteraLabs and UiPath will be the easiest as both remain great companies with great potential. But that isn’t enough for me to hold a stock as you know. Many called me a trader because I consider price action, but both stocks are down 9% and 14% since I closed the positions, and as liquidity rotated 100% to TransMedics up ~10% since, I’m pretty happy with the outcome.
Holding a falling stock based on personal bias is simply not something I do. If that works for you and you can outperform that way, please do so. To each their system. I’ve said in the last monthly that I would close on wrong price action, and I did.
I won’t hold these names if they’re sold after good/stable earnings. If strong results aren’t rewarded, my money is better spent on defensives, it means appetite is down. In those situations, bounces happen, but medium-term potential is limited. It’s not about the companies; it’s about risk appetite.
I am 99% certain both names will see new highs in the next years and I will continue to monitor them and hope to be part of the run when that happens. Both are great companies with great potential. But the market doesn’t like their stocks, so I don’t either. Concentration requires making choices.
Both sold positions are about price action, losing their weekly 50 for a long period of time, which is my selling signal.
UiPath will report earning this month and I will follow and write about it. Let’s see the data and market's reaction.
Alibaba is about opportunity. I sold the name because I needed liquidity for another opportunity: Nordic Semiconductor. I did not have enough to make both positions significant so I chose the best risk-reward according to my opinion. I didn’t share that change because nothing changed for Alibaba, it is still to my opinion a great stock to hold and even buy today.
I’ve been seriously considering re-opening it now that the stock is back on the perfect spot to be bought for bulls: its weekly 50.
The weekly 50 is my lighthouse and I’ve been waiting long on that stock. I was looking at liquidity and how to build a serious position on Friday and didn’t press the button as I had to do something else.
With the situation in Iran and the potential implication of China - it doesn’t matter if it’s real or not, what matters is market’s perception, I could expect the stock to fall a bit more at open assuming the situation isn’t resolved by then. I cannot say what I’ll do today as it’ll depend on the situation in Iran, but if the situation seems stabilized and Alibaba is still on its weekly 50, I will certainly be a buyer now that I have enough liquidity.
Novo Nordisk was detailed in my earnings review. Terrible earnings, shattering the bull case. Nothing to do but sell. I’ll monitor it but I start to consider this name a value trap. Hope data will change my mind in the next quarters.
Nebius... The famous Nebius. I’ll be very straightforward as I’m not here to play violin. Selling was an emotional mistake. Nothing else. I broke my system. The previous weeks were complicated, I got emotional and pressed a button I shouldn’t have.
Systems are here to protect us from ourselves.
I didn’t respect mine. And it cost me.
I thought my personal bias that Nebius wouldn’t be rewarded for increased CapEx if others weren’t, would be right; that I could anticipate. It was not and the market kept treating Nebius differently because of its financing source. Ironically, Coreweave was punished post earnings exactly for what I was concerned about for Nebius.
This doesn’t mean Nebius won’t fall in a few days and break its weekly 50, but I either way shouldn’t have broken my system. If Nebius were to come back to its weekly 50 I would certainly be a buyer now that I have liquidity for one more position. It is more important to correct or wrongs than miss an opportunity by ego - as long as we don’t end up chasing.
If Nebius answers to my system, I have no reasons to say no.
Positions & Watchlist
TransMedics remains my #1 position, ~60% of my portfolio today in both shares and options as I opened a reversal trade Thursday, post-earnings, as the stock fell to $130 for what seemed to be an algorithm stupidity.
As shared in the review, the EPS were wrong on most aggregated data websites and it seems that algorithms believed TransMedics had a sharp decline in net margins, which triggered sells while it was not the case.
I bought the dip aggressively, selling shares to buy my option trade with a January ‘28 expiration. I went big on what seems a great opportunity lately: a defensive healthcare asset with strong growth, massive advantage over competition & many growth levers for the next two/three years.
Still my favorite name in today’s market conditions.
Nordic Semiconductor is the only AI/tech name I own today and I do so because the stock trades at cheap multiple and fundamentals are strong. A company focused on what could be the next wave of hardware demand: AI wearables
We aren’t talking about AsteraLabs’ 25x sales but a modest 4x. The risk profile is not comparable to 99% of the tech market while the potential is, especially after hearing Meta’s confirmations of massive demand for their smart glasses.
A position I intend to hold as long as I can, as long as my thesis holds.
Lululemon’s still in the portfolio. I’ve been surprised by the market this month & how it reacted to consumer-focused companies with restructuring narratives. Columbia or Crocs were rewarded for flat growth guidance and names like Cava/Celsius had great earnings rewarded by the market - we’re talking 20%+ pumps.
We also had tough news like a see-through scandal for their new leggings, the new tariffs which should impact margins and the management transition... Nothing was enough to push the stock lower. We’re holding the bottom with bad news while the sector and consumer names are healthy and pumping.
This is an indicator that sellers are exhausted and that we’ll need more bad news for holders to sell. This smells bottom, although it doesn’t mean we will go higher in a straight line. But my bear case is lateralization assuming no new scandals impacting the brand and its future growth.
Huntsman Corporation, lastly. A name you never heard about. I bought an option reversal trade on Thursday around $12 after it retested its weekly 50. I haven’t had time to write about it but I hope to do so this week. Rapidly:
A cyclical material name which was oversold as fundamentals struggled with Chinese competition, which could stabilize or push higher now that inventories are emptying and with the tariffs situation - reducing Chinese competition. It focuses on chemicals used in homebuilding and automotive, which demand could pick up with lower rates.
The risk here is very acceptable and the market would anticipate recovery if we were to see signs of it which, coupled with low valuation could yield returns. The sector is pushing higher the last weeks which also helped my decision. The market has reasons to push those names higher.
On SolarEdge, which I shared a few days ago, the stock fell on Friday as the market sold off. A riskier thesis which could make sense with the rate cut cycle and expected stable demand for solar systems. We are now back on the weekly 50, my lighthouse. I had a small position closed to buy TransMedics, nothing significant.
It could be a contender to Nebius and Alibaba for the next position but as for the two others, I’ll keep the cash I have in cash short term, until we have a bit more clarity on the Iran situation and impacts on the market.
Looking Ahead
Here’s what I’ll be looking at this month. I won’t have a detailed review on each, only UiPath and Lululemon are assured to have one. I’ll write on the rest if interesting, for the companies themselves or as proxies.
Week 1 - On Running, Sea Limited, America Eagle
Week 2 - UiPath, Adobe, Rubrik, Oracle
Week 4 - Lululemon
February was the month of the pivot at the end. And I struggle to see how the trend shifts in March, maybe even in 2026. The bloodbath in software and downtrends on many others are a great thing, they’ll create opportunities. But those’ll need time to shape and transform into an actionable setup. Most are still falling knives today.
I have so many names I’d be excited to own and I believe I will own most before 2027. Just have to be patient; as a concentrated investor I want to have my chips on the best potential, not diversify onto 20 names. Their time will come.
Disclaimer: I am not a licensed financial advisor, analyst, or broker. This content reflects my personal opinions and investment decisions for informational and educational purposes only. I hold positions in securities discussed and may buy or sell without notice. Nothing here constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified professional before making investment decisions. I accept no responsibility for any financial losses.
Great read as always. Thanks for this!
I missed the post where you sold PATH-what date was that? Wasn't certain how often you post updates.