December Investing Plans & FY26 Preparations
My view on the current market, my investing plan for December and preparations for 2026.
We’ll talk about investing today, not data nor fundamental, but execution. Here’s what you’ll read about.
Detailed review of my portfolio
My opinion on the market’s state.
My view on the next narratives.
My investing plan & watchlist.
My Portfolio.
Here is my portfolio today, divided into 70% shares and 30% options.
And the option positions I hold.
I’ve gone through many adjustments over the past month, reviewed my methodology, and I’m very satisfied with the decisions and the portfolio as it stands. I made mistakes since summer and learned from them, so you’ll see me taking larger positions in key names from now on, with stricter conditions to buy/accumulate.
That’s what we’ll talk about today: the market at large, how I feel about my positions, what I intend to do with them, my watchlist and next steps.
The Market.
We’ve seen many swings lately, and I remained bullish through all of them, for reasons I detailed briefly on this note weeks ago & we’ll go over with a bit more details today.
The market fell weeks ago on two fears.
FED rate cuts. One came from comments by the chairman, who said they were more cautious about cutting rates due to the lack of data after the government shutdown and the possible inflation concerns which remain due to tarrifs.
The beting platforms showed the exact shift in narrative & these swings were in sync with S&P volatility - to the minute. This was the main narrative pulling markets down.
I never bought into it, which is why I kept buying. I continue to believe the FED will cut rates for several reasons.
Inflation due to tariffs remain a concern but those have been massively reduced since Aprils and the latest news point to more reductions coming.
September unemployment data released post-shutdown was clearly negative.
Even without official data, the layoffs since the shutdown tell the story- and the FED knows it.
The FED has its own tools and knows the labor market remains weak.
So this has never been a concern for me.
AI trade. The second fear comes from AI buildouts. The market worries we’re building too much and that buyers won’t be able to fund expenses or honor commitments.
I’ve shared my concerns about OpenAI before, and I share the market’s worries. But most commitments stretch out to 2030 or later. The market will react if revenues disappoint or news turns bearish, but we haven’t seen that yet.
OpenAI could be a single point of failure and drag the market down. But so far, all we have are worries, speculation - which could be right, but could also be wrong.
I am not concerned at all for other companies - Meta, Google, Amazon, etc. They are financially strong and will honor their debt while the market is still very happy to lend them money based on the oversubscriptions of their bonds. So no concerns on their business, but some concerns on the optics. Meta displayed shrinking margins due to depreciation for example, and the market doesn’t like that.
As for reality, Nvidia’s report was clear on demand, the bear case on raising inventory is only a noisy narrative without reasons and I noted how the new Google bear case was noise from people not doing their homework. So I’m not worried - yet, about the AI trade, but I’m no longer committing heavily to it.
These are the two narratives driving the market now. I believe one will be resolved next week when the FED cuts rates, while the other may take longer, requiring strong data to restore optimism. That being said, if the FED were not to cut rate, we’d see the market really unhappy and would need to be patient.
My Views.
AI Infrastructure & Tech.
I believe the main names driving the AI revolution - AMSL, Nvidia, TSM & co, already delivered their returns. I am not worried for their business, I remain bullish on AI, but I do not believe they’ll be the main drivers for returns from now on. Plus, uncertainties around OpenAI means concerns won’t disappear, tough questions will continue to drive speculation. Even if it proves being wrong.
I don’t believe we’re in a bubble. I believe we can go higher. But risks are real and rewards aren’t necessarily worth it anymore in most of the AI names.
That’s why I believe the Nasdaq, and therefore the S&P as tech weights ~35% of the index, will stagnate short to medium term, maybe through 2026.
Again: I am not part of the bubble theory, the AI is a hoax theory or the crash theory. I’m saying I struggle to see the next source of momentum while I clearly see the next source of worries for most names in the AI infrastructure narrative. I believe we are reaching a point where the market won’t treat the AI names equally anymore.
I believe it will focus on differentiation. I see two next steps in the AI revolution.
Optimization. Companies fine-tuning hardware & compute to make data centers more efficient in efficiency and energy. These haven’t received much liquidity yet because optimization was mostly driven by those who treated volume until today.
Concrete usage. Companies leveraging AI to deliver real services. Palantir led the way but many others will follow once products are ready - we might need a bit more patience but we’re getting there.
These will be my focus: companies pushing compute optimization further, and those delivering final products.
Watchlist: Adobe, Duolingo, Path, Nebius, AsteraLabs, Meta.
Healthcare & Retail.
Second, the market rotation cannot be ignored. Both sectors have been beaten down for months but now start to show potential. Stabilization is starting and some names are worth watching closely now, especially in the healthcare sector.
Watchlist Healthcare: Transmedics, Novo Nordisk.
On retail, my problem is that I am bearish U.S. consumption due to the double speed economy, and this shouldn’t get better short term. But the market is clearly pushing liquidity to those names as it anticipates better days and comparisons become easier compared to a terrible 2025.
Bad looks good next to terrible & “bad” deserves better multiples than “terrible.”
That could be the only narrative the market needs to push those names higher, even if they won’t be my priority as my bias remain that U.S. consumption isn’t healthy…
Watchlist Retail: On Running, Lululemon, Nike, Decker.
Geographical Diversification.
I continue to be overly bullish on consumption outside the U.S., with a focus on China & Asia at large, but also some eyes on LatAm as conditions continue to improve for those countries in the form of lower interest rates and a weaker dollar than usual.
Watchlist: Alibaba, Sea Limited, Grab, KWEB, MercadoLibre.
Energy.
I also keep an eye on energy, with Halliburton and Schlumberger performing really well since I shared my trade on both names, notably Halliburton, up 35% since then versus the S&P’s 1.15%.
Cryptocurrencies.
And I never lose sight of Bitcoin and Ethereum, which I continue to accumulate. I’ve added MicroStrategy to my watchlist as most misunderstand their debt structure. It could be a massive opportunity sooner rather than later - as early as December.
You only need one trade to make your yearly performance. And as of today, I believe MicroStrategy could be it with a 6 months timeframe, but I need more confirmations before I can buy in. Will keep you posted.
Conclusion
These are the narratives I’ll focus from now through 2026, and the stocks on my close watchlist as of today. I follow them daily, ready to catch opportunities if they happen, and ready to share it all with you.
Shorter term, we’ll talk about my investing plan for the next month below.
Positions & Watchlist.
As for my December plan, I love my portfolio as it stands entering the end of the year. I wouldn’t change much since I’m largely exposed to healthcare, the most demanded sector lately, hold high-potential names at fair prices with AsteraLabs and Nebius, and remain diversified outside the U.S. with Chinese names.
That said, I sit on roughly 8% cash right now, which would grow to 13% if I cut PayPal completely - as I mentioned I could in my last review of the company, if I were to find attractive opportunities. I also have no margin at the moment, which is a tool I could use for very opportunities.
These are my focuses as of today, with a clear plan for each:
Nebius & AsteraLabs.
Both remain strong companies trading at/below the level I’m willing to pay. In today’s market, they could continue to bleed on OpenAI and other concerns, though both have shown strength lately with what looks like a clear bottom on Nebius and an even better price action on AsteraLabs who broke out its trendline yesterday & is retesting it today.
The stock went up 20% in two days following Credo’s strong earnings, and fell down like a rock a few hours later for… No reasons I know of. Those earnings confirm my thesis that companies are focused on their next step of optimization as it is what Credo also sells. So… Red candles on a great price action for no reason? Good.
I already have a position for 10% of my portfolio on AsteraLabs, and will buy more on it right after I press send on this report. I won’t double it just now and will just push it to 13% or 14%, risks are still here and the price action isn’t stable enough to go all in.
On Nebius, price action is still stable. I will buy more if price action wakes up with clear higher highs and higher lows. As I said: I don’t want to over commit in this sector right now. I want exposition, but controlled exposition.
Alibaba.
As I’ve always said: the Chinese trade will be long & volatile, and Alibaba is the perfect representation of this cycle of bursts and slowdowns. I bought a bit already on the daily 21 - red line, last week and will remain patient.
We’re in the exact same pattern as this summer, with a clear trendline waiting to be broken before pushing to a new yearly high.
Until then, it’s patience. We’re extended, so a slowdown for weeks or months wouldn’t change the thesis. But higher should be the logical next step.
Valuation is still much lower than American comparable companies, it shouldn’t be so far behind.
Growth is muted by the sale of Inmut & SunArt. Next year should be different as cloud revenues accelerate and overall growth will hit 15%+ YoY.
My plan: buy shares if we return to my buying zone. Buy calls if we revisit the weekly 50 & bull trend between $130–$140. At that level, I’d even close KWEB to put it all into Alibaba in shares and long-dated calls.
Lululemon
No, not a typo. Yes, surprising. But after a -65% drop since ATH, the name trades at its lowest valuation ever. Growth is slowing, but maybe not enough to justify this.
I won’t make the full case here unless I buy. For now, I need the chart to reverse. That could be tomorrow, in a month, or even a year.
Stabilization could take time. Just know I’m watching closely & it could become both a shares and calls position.
MicroStrategy & Bitcoin.
Both fell hard, but if you think this is the end of them, you’re wrong. They’ll prove it the best way assets can: with massive green dildos.
MicroStrategy isn’t the risk many believe. It’s trading on its weekly 200 & its breakout from 2024. I’ll need more stabilization & the start of an uptrend before entering, but that could happen in December or early 2026. These assets move fast.
I’ve been in this sector for years, went through massive drawdowns with psychological pressure. The most important lesson I got from this sector is that these assets always make a comeback. It is always violent & there is always more pain before it happens.
I believe we’re close to the end of the pain, at least in terms of drawdown. Many are starting to give up and call bot Bitcoin and MicroStrategy trash, while one if the best asset of the world and the other a leveraged play on it.
A few more weeks of stabilization may be needed but I’ll be there for the move with shares, calls and probably leverage. I firmly believe this trade could define 2026 performance. I won’t miss it, and I’ll optimize it as much as possible.
Sea Limited.
Another Asian name, completely unaffected by most market noise. No concern about tariffs, Western recession or Chinese geopolitical risks. A pure Southeast Asia play - the MercadoLibre of the region.
The issue today: weak can get weaker. I don’t have enough margin of safety to buy at today’s price.
I’m not sure how long it will take to reverse - weeks or months, but it deserves a mention here
Other Names.
I won’t comment on all the names I shared earlier, as some are still falling knives, with new lows and trading below their moving averages. Nothing good happens below the 21. Remember: lows can always go lower, whatever your personal opinion.
Netflix, MercadoLibre, Adobe, Novo, Duolingo… Great names with massive potential. But they’re below their daily and weekly 21, just like Sea Limited. Be patient, their time will come. Better be a bit late than too early.
Performance comes from execution and can be captured mid-move. You’ll never catch the perfect bottom or sell the perfect top. But we can optimize our investing to catch the in-between. That’s what I work on doing here.
Transmedics Plan.
If you’re surprised not to see Transmedics here, don’t be. I’ll hold my position, but it already represents ~40% of my portfolio. I don’t feel the need to add more. I’ve done everything I could; now it’s time to sit and relax.
The stock closed above $150. I see no reason it won’t return to ATH in the short term. I also expect a retest of the six-month consolidation breakout at some point around $150.
Maybe this is what is happening today. Maybe not. In the meantime, I have a clear plan for every scenario.
Slight push into retest $150 - possibly what is happening now, in which case I would do absolutely nothing. Sit tight and wait.
Rapid push to $170+. If this happens before the end of the year, I’d take profits on my $150 calls, probably close the entire position as I do not expect the ATH to be broken that easily. After such performance, many will take profits and I do not want to see the stock retrace to $150 on my expiration date.
Return to range on FUD/pessimism. If this happens before December I would continue to buy, assuming fundamentals are intact. If the market gives me an easy opportunity I’d be a fool to pass on it. But this is the least likely scenario to my opinion.
I’m not trying to predict the future. But I need a clear plan for every scenario. That’s how emotions stay in check.
Prefer $MELI over $SE. Why not include $MU and $COHR if you are so bullish on $ALAB? I own all three, by the way.
Curious to know why you chose mstr and btc vs bmnr and eth. Considering how there is more real world utilization with eth, and bmnr is following the same strategy as mstr, would that be the better pick?