June Investment Plan
The rotation is here and this is how to play it
Hello everyone,
I’ll start with what matters: Thank you. Over 100 of you subscribed in less than two weeks, we reached the Substack financial top 10 and Best Seller top 50 for several days this month. It all means a lot to me and I do not take your trust lightly.
This motivates me to do more - at least better. I am working on a few more services, including a homemade screener to improve my screening and potentially share it with premium subscribers so you can leverage the data I use by yourself. A few weeks from being ready.
To review the numbers since this Substack passed premium, my equal-weighted core portfolio is up 110.61% YTD and 196.38% since inception in early 2025. My personal portfolio, which only leverages the information I share here, is up 169.91% YTD.
And most importantly, my alerts equal-weighted portfolio is up 71.6% since launching in early April. Most Founding Members have already recouped their subscription two weeks after paying for it - probably even already recouped the next ones.
This is what I focus on every day. Not just returns, but a clear system to identify the right sectors, names, setups, and share the convictions to concentrate and hold through uptrends.
For those who aren’t aware or haven’t taken the step yet, know that the launch promotion runs until June 13th, with the Founding Member plan at $350/year. Past this date, prices will increase and no equivalent promotions will ever be proposed. Here is the future organization and pricing.
The New Structure:
Free: Macro updates, quarterly reviews, the thesis portion of all write-ups. (The specific investment strategy, trade executions, swing plays, and chat are now reserved exclusively for paid tiers).
Premium ($350/year): Full access to all write-ups and monthly plan, including the exact investment strategy and trade executions. (This tier does not include Substack chat, alerts, or future services).
Founding Member ($500/year): The complete, unrestricted service. You get full access to everything in Premium plus my buy targets spreadsheet, Substack chat, real-time alerts, and future services in development.
If you feel like jumping in, the next two weeks are the time to do so. Now that this is out of the way, let’s review the month, and plan for the next one.
Last Month’s Plan
I shared three verticals worth focusing on last month.
AI Hardware, like Soitec, Global Foundries, Marvell, Silicom, AsteraLabs, ARM, Credo, MU, Sandisk or Nebius. All of them are up 30% minimum since. AI hardware was the golden source of returns, but that might change.
Space, Intuitive Machines and RocketLabs, up 80% and 77% respectively. This was the upcoming sector with amazing charts and rising narratives without much momentum yet.
Defensives with SolarEdge, Venture Global and Intrepid Potash, the first up 71% in a month while the two others are flat or slightly down.
Bull trends make you feel like a genius; it’s important to keep our feet grounded but also important to realize that this isn’t a bull run, but sectorial bull trends, and that identifying those trends is already a victory. This is the stock picker’s market I was expecting, and it will continue being for the months to come. In those conditions, liquidity concentrates, so do returns, and performance comes with sizing.
Our focus has to be on the few perfect set-ups only, so it is important to tune off the noise and focus. There is always another trade but it doesn’t matter as reducing size will lead to lower total net worth performance, while that is what we are aiming for.
Large returns only matter if they are on large positions.
Macro Review
It looked like another long and eventful month, but the macro situation did not change. The Strait of Hormuz closed for three months now. A deal is apparently awaiting Trump’s final approval but it’s hard to know what is exactly happening so I wouldn’t count on anything until we see ships crossing the strait for a few days without issues.
As shared in my previous reviews, this blockade leads to global inflation and it starts to show as both PPI and PCE came hot. We cannot deny anymore that inflation is back. The only question is whether it will be a rapid spike or a more sticky price increase.
No one has the answer but the market is not yet worried. I believe it expects the Strait to reopen without much real impact as most companies had stockpiles and made do until now without much impacts.
The Fed is supposed to share its decision on interest rates on June 17 and the market is expecting rates to stay put; oil has fallen significantly as traders price in a deal to reopen the Strait
So no, the market isn’t really worried. But we’ll need to keep an eye on it.
I’ll do a brief parenthesis on the “but my stocks aren’t impacted by inflation either way”. Sure. But that doesn’t matter because investors and funds are. The markets are about liquidity not fundamentals so if inflation spikes, investors will withdraw cash because they need it or would rather anticipate a drawdown than live through it. This is what drags stocks lower, not fundamental impacts. I am not saying this will be the case, but it’s worth keeping this in mind.
Earnings Review
If you’ve read them, you know what I’ll say now. If you haven’t, just know that all of them confirmed my expectations. My thesis for months was that AI would need optimization at every layers of the stack, from hardware to software all the way down to token consumption; that is exactly what is happening.
Worth noting that the market is learning to trust again as both Anthropic and OpenAI continue to raise funds, grow revenues, ARRs, with the first even talking about potential profits as soon as this year.
This new technology is creating many new winners generating massive returns which is why analysts call it a bubble. New technologies require everything to be built from scratch so as many new verticals emerge at the same time from the ground, it gives the impression of stupid speculation. It isn’t.
GPUs aren’t the heart of demand anymore. Hardware capable of extracting the maximum performance from those GPUs is. Everything is possible and everyone places their bets. Only a handful will succeed and become tomorrow’s hardware giants, but until the winners are clearly identified, the market will look at every possible alternative and anticipate its success.
What matters for us and any responsible investor is to be aware of the situation and responsible enough to know that a moment will come when we will need to get out to keep those hard-earned returns. We will have signs; our job will be to accept them and not let the bullish atmosphere cloud our judgment.
My Mistakes
I wanted to take some time to share some of my mistakes this month. I know that when writing a premium Substack, you are expected to be infallible and only talk about the wins. It’s bad for business to talk about mistakes. But I started this Substack as a personal journal meant to help me - and it has. Writing helps me accept, visualize and improve. If I cannot write about a company, I know I shouldn’t buy its stock. If I write about my mistake, I can diagnose and correct it.
So I will continue to write about them, because it helps me and because I am sure it can help you. I made a handful of big ones this year, many this month as the market got crazier, noisier and triggered some FOMO, something I thought I had under control… Let’s get through them.
Nebius. I’ve talked about this one already, as I sold the stock on a personal bias, not following my system. I should still be holding it today, I don’t.
Intuitive Machines and Rocket Lab. Two swings with controlled and safe setups I chose to reduce my size on at the lows, just before the pump we’ve seen, for no reason but discomfort with my margin while the market was shaky for a few days.
SolarEdge. This one was played out perfectly, but instead of going in heavy on the latest retest as the stock respected my system for months, I chose to hold my current position and used my liquidity on a swing trade which returned nothing.
Fluence. I believe in this name. But I still had FOMO and bought outside of my system. The position is healthy but I should have been more patient on my first purchase, closer to key averages.
Those are the mistakes. The diagnostic is wider; psychological. There is a clear pattern: I didn’t stick with my plans/system, because I was either uncomfortable with my portfolio or felt I could do better with my gut than my system. I was wrong.
Trades should be held until successful or not, regardless of the market’s situation. I have a clear plan when I buy, with controlled risk, and only take great setups. As long as the plan is clear, it should be held.
Core positions > Swings. If I have the opportunity of building a large core position at a great price, I should. Most of my yearly returns came from those, and most of my mistakes came from attributing liquidity to swings instead.
Only perfect setups are worth buying. There are hundreds of opportunities at any point in time in the markets, we can’t catch them all, so it will always be better to build large position on the best risk reward setup.
This is what I’ll need to work on. Fewer transactions. Perfect setups only, great isn’t enough. Scaling sizes. Sticking to the plan from A to Z. There are no limits to what one can achieve in the markets, as long as one accepts to learn.
That’s what we’re doing, and will continue to do.
On the premium part of this write-up, I will go over my actual portfolio, latest transactions and views of where we are headed in term of sectorial rotation and which core/swing position I am looking at with concrete examples.
