The Few Bets That Matter

The Few Bets That Matter

My New Position: An AI Bottleneck Narrative

When the hottest vertical hands you an opportunity, you size up

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The Few Bets That Matter
Jun 18, 2026
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My system is built so that I don’t have many core-position opportunities to buy at any point in time. Finding new stocks I can go heavy on doesn’t happen every day. I’ve shared ~15 this year, fewer than 10 really strong convictions, not a lot compared to the non-stop noise on social media, for an average-weighted 96.65% return YTD.

You don’t need a lot of positions to make a killing. You only need to go heavy on a handful, and hold them until your thesis plays out or invalidates. Those who held Nebius, Silicom, Soitec and others were rewarded for doing nothing but buying at the right time. It’s that simple.

Today, I bought a new one.

A stock I’ve had on my radar for months, and written about already. It took weeks and patience for the breakout and the retest to happen, but we’re finally there. I opened a large position this morning, as I always do for core positions, and sent an alert to paid subscribers just after. The rest of this article covers why: the company, its narrative, its fundamentals, and how I plan to trade the name.

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