Weekly Recap | September - W4
Watchlist Update, S&P Weakness, Why I Remain Bullish, Nebius' Tendem, Transmedics Insider Buying, Gemini 3, Amazon Bonds, Anthopric New Partnerships, PayPal Perplexity & KKR, Weekly Planning & more.
Weekly Buying List Update.
Here is my watchlist & buying plan. Reaching those prices does not mean I always pull the trigger; those are only my view of valuation & price action today. I only pull the triggers on the ones I believe to be the best liquidity attribution at the moment - purchases are shared on my Savvy B&H portfolio.
https://savvytrader.com/wealthyreadingspro/buyandhodl
Optimized Cost Basis (OCB) - optimum average price for a long term position.
Accumulation Target - buying target based on price action, to average up.
Rating - Buy < 3.5 < Hold < 7 < Trim.
Bold - updates compared to last week.
Green - Potential buy/accumulation.
We’re starting to see a lot of green on my watchlist as stocks continue to dip, offering plenty of good buys for long-term holders looking to DCA.
I remain focused on a handful names & am filtering my watchlist for the next potential big opportunities in H1-26: Novo Nordisk, MercadoLibre, Adobe, Meta, Duolingo -though I expect that one to take longer, or On Running, another strong name in a hated sector at the moment.
Names with great value and potential, trading below what I consider fair value with either terrible price action or negative narratives.
On the names I am a buyer.
Bitcoin continues to be hammered, and I keep increasing my DCA.
KWEB deepened the perfect retest I mentioned last week. In my view, this is the best entry point for the name.
Nebius & AsteraLabs are both trading at key levels. I expect more pain for both, and I’ll buy more only if it happens and once price action stabilizes.
Alibaba is finally giving the retests I’ve been waiting for months. Perfect accumulation price. I’d love it even a bit lower around $140.
And Transmedics is perfection incarnate, bouncing off its daily 200 like clockwork, as anticipated. This should mean continuation of the uptrend, though with the market as pessimistic as it’s been, who knows. Still, it remains my strongest conviction.
The challenge now is that 4/5 of my active assets are at attractive buying points today - excluding Bitcoin which is strictly a DCA play. I will narrow them down to just KWEB and Alibaba as AsteraLabs and Nebius are slightly less than 10% of my portfolio and I don’t want to increase them until we have more clarity on market’s risk appetite or until their prices fall further and stabilize.
So only two great buys for me in today’s conditions on my watchlist.
If you’re wondering why PayPal isn’t on the list, check my last write-up on the name to understand why I’m not buying it anymore - for now.
Market & Macro.
The market remains volatile and aggressive, with sharp moves both up and down. This is not the best environment for those without strong convictions, a clear system, or margin. I’ll repeat again: have a system, know what you own, why you own it & for how long. Otherwise, you’ll lose sleep.
And the S&P is not sending encouraging signals.
It just lost its daily 50 for the first time since April, retested both averages & plunged further. This isn’t encouraging and I expect more pain - stagnation at best, unless we get positive news out of the blue.
Bitcoin and Ethereum also reflect market’s wish for risk lately, down 32% and 45% since their ATH this summer. I don’t believe we’re in a crypto nuclear winter yet, but even if we were, my behavior wouldn’t change. I’ve increased my DCA & will wait for results in the coming years. Long term on those two.
I also want to talk about MicroStrategy. I wrote months ago explaining how the asset works and why social media misunderstands it. The risk of default is much lower than many assume, and the asset is more interesting than most realize. Here’s what I wrote back then.
As long as MicroStrategy holds its Bitcoins and Bitcoin remains uncorruptible, I’ll believe it will be a success, but I wouldn’t touch the stock right now. I’ll patiently wait for the NAV to come back to reasonable multiples and will gladly buy if we ever go under x1 again - which I believe we will.
I’ve added it to my watchlist now that NAV is below 1x. I’ll talk about it again when the time to buy comes, but that isn’t today.
On macro: I continue to expect a rate cut in December, while the market prices in none. Some FED members gave positive comments this week and my thesis remains: unemployment is the real threat and the lack of data doesn’t mean conditions aren’t worse while all signs point to it being the case.
This is why I remain aggressive. I believe the market is wrong on the FED, wrong on Nvidia’s earnings interpretation (which I detailed here), I expect tariffs to fall, by choice or with the Supreme Court’s ruling. The U.S. also announced a potential $2,000 stimulus for lower-income households & possible sales of newer GPU generations to China.
Trump loves his market too much to let it slide too far. I might be wrong, but I put my money where my mouth is.
We also heard Saudi Arabia may invest up to half a trillion more in the U.S. I’m usually cautious on such deals, but more bullish when they come from countries with deep funds and a will to build soft power. This is a great opportunity, especially as they push hard on new technologies and innovation.
That said, there’s no rush. The market is unstable & volatile. Even though I’m bullish, especially on tech at today’s prices, I don’t want to aggressively catch falling knives & hurt my portfolio. I illustrated this with Duolingo, but many other stocks could fit this description nowadays.
Performance is built in the in-between, not by catching perfect bottoms or selling perfect tops. It’s about maximizing potential & minimizing risks.
Watched Stocks and Portfolio.
Nebius | Toloka & Tandem
Nebius’ Toloka - now only partially owned after Bezos’ fundraising, launched a new product called Tendem, an AI LLM coupled with human supervision to avoid hallucinations.
The idea is to assign complex tasks to it, with results or steps proofed by experts. It’ll be too slow for simple workloads, but it’s valuable for deep research where quality matters more than speed.
It looks niche, but many could be interested. I would, given the many hallucination I get daily on long requests. The only question mark is about the quality of the human expert… But the product is interesting.
Transmedics Insider Buying.
Not new, but important. Insiders sell for many reasons, but they only buy on the open market with their own funds for one reason: they believe the stock is undervalued.
Transmedics now averages 27 flights a day, up from 26.4 when I wrote ten days ago that they’d likely beat guidance even without accelerating flight rates.
Amazon fundraising & OpenAI partnership.
Amazon raised $15B through bonds to accelerate AI buildouts, following Meta and Google. Another hyperscaler who decides to leverage debt to expand AI. This raises more concerns about overbuilding but also should reassure on compute demand.
Nvidia, Microsoft & Anthropic Deal.
A new agreement to exchange hardware, compute and AI services between three giants.
PayPal & Perplexity, KKR agreement.
The agentic e-commerce partnership announced weeks ago goes live on Perplexity AI next week. Users will chat with the LLM to find products and purchase directly via PayPal. This will give PayPal a month of data on demand, adoption and conversion.
PayPal also expanded its BNPL deal with KKR, offloading risk in exchange for interest. The increased value is a good signal for the quality of the product and health of its consumers - KKR wouldn’t expand otherwise.
Gemini 3.
Google released Gemini 3 which seems to be outperforming competitors on many benchmarks - although benchmarks aren’t everything.
Gentle reminder that less than a year ago, Google was considered disrupted & dead. Now it is considered once again as the AI leader.
Hopefully you were there months ago when I shares many times that Google would be more than fine and continue to thrive My only mistake was not holding my shares bought around $150. I hope you did.
Weekly Planning.
Earnings season is over. Some of you are waiting for Palo Alto analysis since Thursday. I haven’t had time to review results yet, but I’ll do it this week. Details are coming, I didn’t forget, was just swamped with other topics.
That’s all I plan to write this week. As usual, I’ll add more if I find interesting things to comment on.
Have a wonderful week, see you later!
I've been hearing a lot about why $META is below fair price, but have not come across a great explanation from other folks. What makes it below fair price for you?