I get the idea of cutting to preserve capital however, could you argue that it’s better to err to hold due to the asymmetric return of stocks? Aka you can only lose 100% (often it’s not 100%) but the potential gain is infinite?
Interesting. So the thought process it’s not necessarily maximizing returns (although obvious the returns have been great) just being able to invest/hold through volatility.
Somehow yes, which is inherently tied to improving returns.
I think most investors buy on a thesis they believe to be right without a doubt nor even the knowledge to assert this, and assume they'll behave properly in any situation.
This is wrong, and we all know it. By having a plan and clear unemotional invalidation conditions, investors protect themselves from... Themselves and their bias.
Bill ó Neal is greeting. If i look back at my big mistakes these were exactly that. Waiting like the rabbit in the hole until the stocks come back. Some did, the higher number did not. And summed up with the opportunity costs, jesus. Since I cut with 7-10% loss it is becoming better.
Hi, I need to ask you this. I remember early this year you sold your positions including NBIS amongst others and missed big price run ups. However, these last couple of months it appears to me that you've hidden those actual trades. I saw a post from you on X recently where you showed a spreadsheet showing your buys and sells and it appeared that include these transaction. In my mind there is something awry there.
I really appreciate honesty and owning one's actions. I might be way off base but It appears to me that this was swept under a rug. Can you explain what happened here to me please?
Your article above sounds great but I'm in a position where I question the integrity of it. As a person who has paid for your content I'd feel like I'm owed an answer.
I will obviously answer. Not because you are a paid sub though, but because it is the right thing to do. I'd have done the same for any sub.
But even as a paid sub it seems like you missed some content :).
On Nebius and selling it, yes I did. I ran the stock publicly from ~$25 to ~$85 and from ~$110 to ~$150. Transparently, nothing was pushed under the rug, the buying or the selling.
I'll add the receipts so you can see yourself, on both X, Notes and articles.
"Nebius... The famous Nebius. I’ll be very straightforward as I’m not here to play violin. Selling was an emotional mistake. Nothing else. I broke my system. The previous weeks were complicated, I got emotional and pressed a button I shouldn’t have."
Black on white. Pretty straightforward.
On the why it is still on the screenshot shared, this is inherent to how I run my Substack. I share the best opportunities I can find and how to manage the positions according to my system. I've explained this many times, the latest here.
I have never owned nor claimed that I owned every stock I shared. I only holds names I shared - that I claimed and is true, but not all of them. I currently own 6 stocks compared to 18 shared and still active since Jan-25.
Which explains why Nebius is still there, like many other I don't personally own. The sheet is meant to follow my system, which Nebius always met, so I had no reason to close it on my SS portfolio, and many subs are satisfied I never published an article talking about why we should sell it.
I hope that clarifies it. Nothing was swept under no rug.
I think this relation reinforced with algos and increasing weight of whales yes. They weight more and now voluntarily influence the market. Ithey surely did before but not at the same scale/frequency.
I wouldn’t call 1-3 years short term, but yes. Although as written, anything further than 2y is already impossible to anticipate so to my opinion this applies to every position one can take.
Really enjoyed this and it’s similar to how I try to treat losers too.
There have definitely been times when I’ve justified them and let them keep falling and they’re probably my top mistakes.
I have the same diagnostic. Lots of mistakes through the years but the most hurtful one in term of dollar value loss was to hold onto losers…
One of the hardest lesson out there imo.
Great write up. Being open and ‘harsh’ is good. Thanks for the shoutout! 👊🏼😂
🤝
Interesting ideas. Still processing…
I get the idea of cutting to preserve capital however, could you argue that it’s better to err to hold due to the asymmetric return of stocks? Aka you can only lose 100% (often it’s not 100%) but the potential gain is infinite?
Yes. Assuming you are right and you can sleep at night with such lattent losses.
That’s what this is about, not the math per se. It’s about psychology.
Interesting. So the thought process it’s not necessarily maximizing returns (although obvious the returns have been great) just being able to invest/hold through volatility.
Somehow yes, which is inherently tied to improving returns.
I think most investors buy on a thesis they believe to be right without a doubt nor even the knowledge to assert this, and assume they'll behave properly in any situation.
This is wrong, and we all know it. By having a plan and clear unemotional invalidation conditions, investors protect themselves from... Themselves and their bias.
Which at the end, improves their returns.
Bill ó Neal is greeting. If i look back at my big mistakes these were exactly that. Waiting like the rabbit in the hole until the stocks come back. Some did, the higher number did not. And summed up with the opportunity costs, jesus. Since I cut with 7-10% loss it is becoming better.
I honestly think this is the #1 reason for retails’ underperformance. If more would accept and apply this, global perf would drastically improve.
But who knows.
Hi, I need to ask you this. I remember early this year you sold your positions including NBIS amongst others and missed big price run ups. However, these last couple of months it appears to me that you've hidden those actual trades. I saw a post from you on X recently where you showed a spreadsheet showing your buys and sells and it appeared that include these transaction. In my mind there is something awry there.
I really appreciate honesty and owning one's actions. I might be way off base but It appears to me that this was swept under a rug. Can you explain what happened here to me please?
Your article above sounds great but I'm in a position where I question the integrity of it. As a person who has paid for your content I'd feel like I'm owed an answer.
Hello Krishnan,
I will obviously answer. Not because you are a paid sub though, but because it is the right thing to do. I'd have done the same for any sub.
But even as a paid sub it seems like you missed some content :).
On Nebius and selling it, yes I did. I ran the stock publicly from ~$25 to ~$85 and from ~$110 to ~$150. Transparently, nothing was pushed under the rug, the buying or the selling.
I'll add the receipts so you can see yourself, on both X, Notes and articles.
https://x.com/WealthyReadings/status/2024193483003576434
https://x.com/WealthyReadings/status/2031744363043160360
https://substack.com/@wealthyreadings/note/c-216355666
https://www.wealthyreadings.com/p/march-investment-thesis
From the last link:
"Nebius... The famous Nebius. I’ll be very straightforward as I’m not here to play violin. Selling was an emotional mistake. Nothing else. I broke my system. The previous weeks were complicated, I got emotional and pressed a button I shouldn’t have."
Black on white. Pretty straightforward.
On the why it is still on the screenshot shared, this is inherent to how I run my Substack. I share the best opportunities I can find and how to manage the positions according to my system. I've explained this many times, the latest here.
https://www.wealthyreadings.com/p/you-can-now-see-all-my-trades
I have never owned nor claimed that I owned every stock I shared. I only holds names I shared - that I claimed and is true, but not all of them. I currently own 6 stocks compared to 18 shared and still active since Jan-25.
Which explains why Nebius is still there, like many other I don't personally own. The sheet is meant to follow my system, which Nebius always met, so I had no reason to close it on my SS portfolio, and many subs are satisfied I never published an article talking about why we should sell it.
I hope that clarifies it. Nothing was swept under no rug.
Great write up. I love your transparency and honesty. Always good to have these insights🤝
Glad you liked it! Hope it can help maybe, if only to understand my content better.
I think this relation reinforced with algos and increasing weight of whales yes. They weight more and now voluntarily influence the market. Ithey surely did before but not at the same scale/frequency.
I wouldn’t call 1-3 years short term, but yes. Although as written, anything further than 2y is already impossible to anticipate so to my opinion this applies to every position one can take.