Outstanding macro synthesis. The cooling inflation + weakening labor combo setting up for cuts is textbook, but the Japan carry trade angle adds real complexity most ppl miss. I dunno why more analysts don't connect liquidity shifts from BOJ hikes to the tech deleverage we're seeing. The gradual pace you outline(once per 6 months) means this unwinds slow, not crash-style, which is probly why markets already priced it.
Curious... If you are moving from BTC to Strategy, why not Eth to Bitmine?
Because the risk profile is different at today's valuation. I have around 17% of my portfolio in crypto. It’s already enough without adding more risk.
Love this write up. Thankyou for this year?
Glad you like it! So much more to come in the next years!
Outstanding macro synthesis. The cooling inflation + weakening labor combo setting up for cuts is textbook, but the Japan carry trade angle adds real complexity most ppl miss. I dunno why more analysts don't connect liquidity shifts from BOJ hikes to the tech deleverage we're seeing. The gradual pace you outline(once per 6 months) means this unwinds slow, not crash-style, which is probly why markets already priced it.