I would add that there are three main types of fertilizers: N-Nitrogen/Urea, P-Potash, and K-Potassium. And they are all needed for different purposes. The current blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has the most severe impact on the supply of N, which is a by-product of natural gas (with Qatar and Iran being among the largest suppliers around the world). The three fertilizer companies, as you mentioned, focus on different fertilizer products. IPI->K; NTR->P (+50%) + N (around 25%); CF->N. So invest accordingly. If you want a pure hedge against the current geopolitical tension around the Gulf, CF would be an obvious choice (which is also the most volatile one among the three). However, there are decent reasons to be bullish on all three as long-term trades. Have you also looked into agricultural products like $weat or $corn? I am smelling some opportunities there as a result of the severe fertilizer shortage/ price hike around the world, as well as the severe drought in the US.
Thanks for sharing! Appreciate the details. I haven't so far but I agree that if this thesis proved right then we'll have more opportunities in this sector
Does publishing articles online help you become a better investor? I can imagine that putting your thoughts into words and sharing them with others might improve your thinking. Have there been times when this process led you to change your thesis or perspective?
100% yes. It's a very easy question and I would advise it to everyone. Audience don't even matter, just the fact of structuring your ideas and writing them forces you to ask more questions and dig further. I started like this actually, I didn't publish anything I just wrote. You can't imagine the number of unfinished articles I have because writing made me. Change my opinion.
But publishing changed the game as you get to have criticism.
I am a much better in estir today and it is 80% because I posted an article one day around two years ago.
I would add that there are three main types of fertilizers: N-Nitrogen/Urea, P-Potash, and K-Potassium. And they are all needed for different purposes. The current blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has the most severe impact on the supply of N, which is a by-product of natural gas (with Qatar and Iran being among the largest suppliers around the world). The three fertilizer companies, as you mentioned, focus on different fertilizer products. IPI->K; NTR->P (+50%) + N (around 25%); CF->N. So invest accordingly. If you want a pure hedge against the current geopolitical tension around the Gulf, CF would be an obvious choice (which is also the most volatile one among the three). However, there are decent reasons to be bullish on all three as long-term trades. Have you also looked into agricultural products like $weat or $corn? I am smelling some opportunities there as a result of the severe fertilizer shortage/ price hike around the world, as well as the severe drought in the US.
Thanks for sharing! Appreciate the details. I haven't so far but I agree that if this thesis proved right then we'll have more opportunities in this sector
Does publishing articles online help you become a better investor? I can imagine that putting your thoughts into words and sharing them with others might improve your thinking. Have there been times when this process led you to change your thesis or perspective?
100% yes. It's a very easy question and I would advise it to everyone. Audience don't even matter, just the fact of structuring your ideas and writing them forces you to ask more questions and dig further. I started like this actually, I didn't publish anything I just wrote. You can't imagine the number of unfinished articles I have because writing made me. Change my opinion.
But publishing changed the game as you get to have criticism.
I am a much better in estir today and it is 80% because I posted an article one day around two years ago.
Thanks. This helps a lot!
If you think about doing it, don't hesitate!