10 Comments
User's avatar
Peter Baughan's avatar

seems kind of absurd to me -

The Few Bets That Matter's avatar

You get to manage your own money as you see fit!

Gil's avatar

I somewhat agree. However, I don’t think that’s a fully rational investing approach. When you find a company that executes exceptionally and the numbers support the story, you shouldn’t necessarily expect the price to fall even further. It starts to become guessing game.

Of course, there should be a margin of safety that you’re comfortable with and that matches the level of risk. And when you invest in carefully chosen companies in which you have the highest conviction, Mr. Market shouldn’t change your view. You don’t want to predict the market’s mood — you want to own businesses that are, in the best cases, severely undervalued and overlooked.

If the price falls, you should be happy, unless the business itself and your thesis are falling apart. I don’t think that, for Duolingo investors, the thesis is falling apart. You may be right a dozen times, but beyond that, it becomes speculation.

The Few Bets That Matter's avatar

My problem is that future execution is often the reason for price action to fall. It doesn't mean it won't work, just that there are doubts.

I disagree with you but investing is an emotional game and is different for everyone. What matters is to have a system which works for you and to follow it. I have mine because I know I am not one to hold a falling stock and buy falling knives. So I won't force myself in situations which will force mistakes.

There are no universal truth nor method.

TheEquityX's avatar

Momentum trading is everything today. This article only proves it.

The Few Bets That Matter's avatar

I think momemtum trading is everything, everytime. I don't know if you think that's a good thing or not but the market always behave that way I think.

Rilakkuma's avatar

Like the psychology aspect. It’s really an eye sore seeing a big drawdown which doesn’t seem to recover ever… well unless liquidity is not an issue!

The Few Bets That Matter's avatar

If only liquidity could not be an issue ahah

Ivan's avatar

Great article. I personally see it as a perfect storm to buy and DCA. You only must have a conviction and not a short term view on the investment. However, I’ve been a contrarian investor my entire life

The Few Bets That Matter's avatar

The market needs a bit of everything to work and I know many who work like you and had wonderful results. It does work and I'll join you in Duolingo, I'm 99% sure of it. Not just yet is all.