Anatomy of a Trade - 10/22/25
Uranium and rare earth in the same package.
I’ve always said that fundamentals, research & convictions matter, but beating the market comes down to execution. That’s what these write-ups will be about.
I will share through them every change in my active portfolio - stocks & options, reasonings & plans, before I even hit the buttons. I won’t update DCAs, I will only share my plans & new/closed positions in these write-ups. You can follow the rest directly on savvytrader.
https://savvytrader.com/wealthyreadingspro/active
I also recently opened a Buy & Hodl portfolio on which I will DCA $4,000 every month & focus on buying the best assets I can at the best possible price, 100% focused on fundamentals & valuation, without any active management.
https://savvytrader.com/wealthyreadingspro/buyandhodl
Keep in mind that both portfolios have completely different goals and I can behave very differently on both for the same name - accumulating in the buy & hodl while selling in the active portfolio for example. Different rules apply.
My goal is to deliver alpha over the long term, not just six months under easy market conditions. If/when proven this content is valuable, it will be shared behind a paywall. No rush, though; it’ll stay free until proven valuable.
So here’s the deal: you get full transparency on my trades, right when I make them. If - and only in that case, it brings real & long-term alpha, it’ll be accessible only for a fee. I believe that’s fair enough, but feel free to provide feedback!
Nothing shared here is financial advice; we are all responsible for ourselves.
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https://fiscal.ai/?via=wealthyreadings
Markets aren’t fun today, but I’m sharing a new trade idea I took minutes ago despite volatility and risky environment, even after saying that we shouldn’t play heros.
Sometimes… Signals happen.
Uranium and Rare Earth.
I’ve covered the uranium bull case so you will find it here.
If you want a really brief overview: AI datacenter energy demand will only rise, global demand for nuclear is growing all over the world and we don’t have enough uranium to meet demand.
Rare earths will be the focus today, although the trade involves both.
Trump, China and Rare Earth.
Market weakness started with Trump’s reaction to China’s new rare earth - strategic minerals for tech and defense, export controls. China holds a quasi-monopoly on refining - not mining, for rare earths.
China has a quasi-monopoly on rare earth refinement - not mining. Those are mostly used for technological manufacturing (missiles, radar systems, aerial vehicles, naval warfare platforms, jet engines and aircraft, high-powered lasers, night vision, secure communications, satellite & space systems, semiconductors, microelectronics, energy infrastructure…).
We live in an ironic world: the U.S. know how to build the best tech hardware, but only China can refine the materials. Both rely heavily on each other on this matter & many other but still use their leverage in negotiations.
China’s threat to cut off rare earth exports is its golden card, many expected it back in April, but it didn’t happen.
The market was already stretched, but this triggered the actual uncertainty: a long-standing U.S. strategic weakness in refining capacity. Rare earths can be found worldwide, but China does most refining.
The West could - should, be independent if it had the infrastructures and raw material. And Trump has made clear he doesn’t want to rely on China any longer, which means working on self-reliability.
I don’t want them to play the rare earth game with us.
He roamed around these last days to secure America’s future in rare earths, with an $8.5B mining deal with Australia, including $2B invested by both countries over the next six months for lithium and gallium mining - no refining.
The U.S. is also negotiating investment in Critical Metals Corp, an American rare earth miner - again.
And Trump says he’ll keep traveling to secure rare earth supply. The U.S. government is working to end reliance on China, but so far it’s about minerals, not about refining, which remains the key issue.
You see where this is going, right?
Energy Fuels Inc.
Energy Fuels Inc. is one of the week’s most traded stocks, an American company with unique commercial-scale refining capabilities - and some mining. I’ll skip the financials as the thesis is about momentum, narrative and liquidity flow.
The narrative is simple: Trump is securing minerals but the U.S. will need refining capacities, locally, which is exactly Energy Fuels’s focus.
Energy Fuels is a U.S.‑based critical minerals and uranium producer which operates the only U.S. facility that refines both uranium and rare earth elements at commercial scale .
Energy Fuels is the largest American uranium supplier and produces NdPr oxides used in clean energy and defense technologies . It is also developing titanium, zirconium, vanadium, and medical isotope production .
Globally, it owns projects in Madagascar, Brazil and Australia to secure feedstock for its U.S. refining operations . Together, these assets form a vertically integrated supply chain linking mining and advanced rare earth processing within the Western world .
Less than a handful companies have such strategic position. Energy Fuels is vital for America now and for the next decade, although my trade is about now, we are not playing the nex decades today.
Liquidity and Technicals.
Before we go over it, I want to be crystal clear: this is a highly speculative trade with a short timeframe and no safety if things go wrong. I took this risk and share it all for transparency and to justfiy performance to you - green or red, not to encourage you to follow. This is what this Substrack is about, sharing information so you can manage your own book.
You understood the narrative. And the market did too as the stock is up 333% YTD. But those last days breather helped, the retest on the daily 21 is perfect, but what gave the last strike was the option flow.
We had more than 45,000 bullish contracts exchanged on the name the last 7 days with 30,000 of them traded… Today, with an average expiration in December at a $30 strike price, more than 30% out of the money. We are talking about a $90M bet set up in a few hours.
From here, either someone knows something, or it’s just very ballsy speculation. There are no certainties on the markets.
Some speculate the U.S. could take a stake, as it did with Intel for “national security”, as Howard said it few weeks ago.
Intel is excited to welcome the United States of America as a shareholder, helping to create the most advanced chips in the world. As more companies look to invest in America, this administration remains committed to reinforcing our country’s dominance in artificial intelligence while strengthening our national security.
Energy Fuels would fit as the only U.S.-based refiner at scale.
I am not saying this will happen, nor that the trade will work. I am sharing information.
The Playbook.
Very simple, most contracts expire in December at $30, but the top three trades are for Nov 21st at $27, $29, and $30. I chose the riskiest: Nov 21 ‘25 $30 at $1.91.
That’s all. This is a trend play, very risky, very short term, which isn’t things I usually focus on, but the option flow is too exceptional to be ignored. That being said, Trump is set to meet - or should meet, Xi this week and a productive discussion could also make this trade null. The contrary wouldn’t please the market but would certainly please this specific stock.
Once again, very speculative. Very short term. Let’s see where this goes.