Portfolio Modifications - 03/05/25
Sell: SoFi, AMLP, XES, Alibaba | Buy: KWEB
I’ve always said that fundamentals, research & convictions matter, but beating the market comes down to execution. That’s what these write-ups will be about.
I will share through them every change in my portfolio - stocks & options, reasonings & plans, before I even hit the buttons. I won’t update DCAs. I will only share my plans and new/closed positions in these write-ups - you can follow all transactions directly on the portfolio if interested.
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Here is the actual portfolio, buttons were pressed minutes before sending this write up.
Lots of changes, less positions. Going big on key ideas.
Sell.
SoFi.
This is a matter of liquidity. I love the company & believe it has much higher to go, but we’re talking about a 5% position that would need triple-digit returns to meaningfully impact the portfolio from here.
I’m closing the position after a 75% gain. Price action isn’t beautiful right now, and the U.S. market feels very emotional.
We lost the bottom, I wouldn’t be surprised if positive news pushed the stock back to the top of the range. But there’s also the possibility of a bigger correction on this name, and I’d rather have my liquidity elsewhere right now, as you’ll see below.
AMLP & XES.
These two names were meant to hedge the market and give me a foothold in the energy sector. Honestly, I remain bullish on energy, but this was a misattribution of liquidity.
It’s time to do better.
Alibaba.
Nothing to be concerned about here. I’m simply pulling liquidity back from Alibaba to reallocate it to Alibaba, differently. More details below.
Buy.
KWEB.
This is the start of my rotation.
I have a write-up detailing the investment case for China, along with my stock-picking selection, coming tomorrow. I really wanted to finish it before making these portfolio changes but I couldn’t - and I don’t want to miss the entry point on this retest.
The perfect entry was at $30 on the EMA retest, but I was an idiot then and thought I could outsmart the market, so I missed it. Now we have a retest on the 200 EMA, and we’re at the start of a potential bull run in China - you’ll see it all tomorrow. It’s time to go big.
KWEB is a Western ETF that tracks the Overseas China Internet Index. It includes all the companies I wanted to invest in in China, except one. My plan is simple: accumulate shares of this ETF and play individual companies more aggressively with options.
Here are the holdings of the ETF. I was very interested in half of these assets and could allocate cash to them all, so this is a smarter way to go.
I’m initiating a sizable position as fundamentals are strong and price action is starting its leg up. But I’ve said many times that the Chinese bull run will be volatile, so we shouldn’t be surprised with sharp declines driven by news of tariffs or other geopolitical topics.
I’ll grow this position on every pullback as long as my view doesn’t change. Everything points to the start of a big move & it’s impossible not to go in big. Time will tell, and I’ll adapt if needed.
For now, it’s time to start this rotation as the U.S. stock market feels too emotional for me. I want some liquidity out of it for when the music stops - though I still don’t think that’s today & continue to hold those assets.
Big write up on China coming tomorrow. And more portfolio modifications in the next days / weeks as I build my option calls positions.