Portfolio Modifications - 02/23/25
Buy: Hims, Nebius | Trim: Nvidia, Solana, Ethereum | Sell: Celsius
I’ve always said that fundamentals, research & convictions matter, but beating the market comes down to execution. That’s what these write-ups will be about.
I will share through them every change in my portfolio - stocks, options, everything. You’ll have access to each move I make, the reasoning & the plan behind it, before I even hit the buttons.
My goal is to deliver alpha over the long term, not just six months under easy market conditions. If/when proven this content is valuable, it will be shared behind a paywall. No rush, though; it’ll stay free until proven valuable.
So here’s the deal: you get full transparency on my trades, right when I make them. If - and only in that case, it brings real & long-term alpha, it’ll be accessible only for a fee.
I believe that’s fair enough, but feel free to provide feedback!
Preview.
I’m not here to tell stories; I’m here to try & provide the most value I can. I shared my portfolio on SavvyTrader some months ago now and thought it would be enough, but the truth is, it only is enough for long-term shares - not really for hedge or aggressive plays.
It’s been doing very well so far though, delivering 28.7% more than the S&P 500 since inception in September 2024, despite a very violent Friday.
I’ll obviously continue to share it & it will remain the most important source of alpha, but I will also share my personal options account for my aggressive & volatile plays.
Again, beating the market is about execution - going big at the right time or being a bit more defensive when needed. Here’s the performance of my options account, which has been pretty volatile, as you can see, with some mistakes in 2024.
I could have shared the YTD returns which paint a better picture but that wouldn’t be honest. The truth is that options are a violent & volatile tool, which can go both ways really rapidly.
Bottom line: portfolios are pretty good up to today, with shares beating the market by 28.7% and options beating the market by 102.6%. As I said, I’ll continue to work and do my best to keep this dynamic going, although those returns will clearly not be reproducible over long time frames.
I won’t do this overview every time; I will focus the next reports on the portfolio modifications. Today is just a preview.
Portfolio Modifications.
Let’s start our subjects. I’ll try to have an easy format to read, but I’ll need to optimize it in time. So let’s try things.
Selling.
Celsius Option Calls | Jul18'25 37.5 Call.
Results: 4.6% loss.
I shared the argumentation in my Celsius quarterly review.
I needed retail sales to remain flat at worst to hold that trade, as I assumed the Pepsi inventory resolution would create bullish comparisons YoY. Retail sales kept declining and the Alani acquisition could work but will take long before yielding results - which might never even happen.
Trimming.
Nvidia | Shares @ $139.63.
My Nvidia position was bought on the DeepSeek scare with an average price of $117.93. I continue to be bullish on Nvidia but the stock had run a lot since, and I needed liquidity to reinforce another position.
I did not close the position, as my thesis remains that there are needs for computing power. But trimming at the top of the range after an 18.4% return in two weeks is a pretty strong trade.
Solana & Ethereum.
I trimmed both my speculative crypto assets following the ByBit hack on Friday. I remain bullish on both assets & still believe the crypto bull run isn’t over, but it is dangerous to hold big positions on those assets during this kind of event.
I kept part of that liquidity aside to buy back under certain conditions.
I will need Ethereum to push and close above that downtrend line and confirm some strength. This would bring confirmation that we can have a second leg, and I see no point in growing my positions before confirmations.
Same for Solana.
The asset has been really weak lately, and I’ve usually been bullish on wicks retest - I still am, but I want confirmations before re-tying more liquidity to it.
I did not close the positions; I simply trimmed them. Be ready for an update if Solana & Ethereum either push or fall lower, as I would also close the positions if things start to get ugly.
Buying.
Nebius | Shares @ $40.57 & $41.39.
Lots of volatility after the quarterly results first, then dumping again on Friday’s selloff. I’ve shared many times that ATH breakout retests are usually really bullish price actions to buy and I put my money where my mouth is.
This was bought with Nvidia’s liquidity mostly, a rotation from a great volatility trade toward a high-potential narrative trade in the same sector. The quarter was slightly weak and disappointed some investors, but the bull case did not change, nor the demand for computing power.
Volatile & high-risk asset. But I built a big position on it.
Nebius | Aug15'25 65 Call @ $4.87.
As I said, when homework is done, convictions are built, price action is bullish and gives you an entry point, performance comes with risks and big positions.
Nothing more to comment here besides that I also own Jan 16 '26 40 Call @ $10.
Hims | Feb28'25 80 Call @ $0.7.
Wild week for Hims & Hers - you’ll receive the full update in the weekly tonight. These are very, very speculative calls with everything-or-nothing gains. They are a very small part of the options portfolio - less than 2%, hence almost nothing from the global portfolio POV.
The reasoning is that the market overreacted to the GLP-1 FDA announcement, the quarterly results on Monday will be strong & show that Hims isn’t a GLP-1 company but a personalized wellness platform, while management will deal with the GLP-1 subject with a clear plan.
You do not release a million-dollar Super Bowl ad and then close your entire service because of FDA regulation. You think further than this when you manage a public company.
Keep in mind I might be missreading the situation entirely & we might see an end to Hims & GLP-1. Which isn’t an end to Hims in itself as the bull case never included those drugs - but they were a great boost.
Highly speculative - this either goes to zero or yields good returns.
Cash.
I still have cash in both shares & options accounts, which I plan to deploy depending on Hims earnings on Monday, on the cryptocurrency market price action or for a potential earnings play on TransMedics depending again on price action.
Updates will come if anything moves.
Thank you for sharing this. Completely agree with your vision and thinking behind sharing. Well done!