Buy & Hodl Portfolio | Buying Plan
How I Invest for the Next Decade.
I won’t come back on everything which happened, between the struggling economy & the tariffs announcement passing by their real objective. But you guys should be aware of my opinion on the markets before going further with that write-up as it shapes my decisions.
I believe we will have more pain as Trump seems to be trying to fix the U.S. debt & this won’t happen overnight. This is only my interpretation though, you’ll have the details below.
Until then, I do not see how we avoid a longer correction, maybe even a bear market depending on your definitions. Impossible to be sure of anything but even if inflation and the interest on debt both decline, the economy remains sluggish & investors’ trust in the administration is somewhat broken & it will take time to rebuild it.
Most liquidity won’t come back until the situation is less volatile and by that I mean that we shouldn’t expect new ATHs rapidly.
This will create opportunities. For anyone with enough stomach, cash excess & capacity to invest… The next months to years might give some of the biggest opportunities to create wealth.
The Buy & Hodl Portfolio.
Hence this write-up, in which I will share my multi-year accumulation plan on the best companies of the world - to my opinion. I will go over which & why I believe they are so valuable, how I intend to buy them & at what price exactly. The execution will be shared on this portfolio which obviously reflects mine. I’ll inject fresh liquidity on it every month and buy the companies I believe are the best buys at the moment. Exactly like I do.
https://savvytrader.com/wealthyreadingspro/buyandhodl
If you are here since some time you already know most of those companies, I follow them closely & have commented their events, quarters or news on the weeklies. I’ll continue to do so to be sure my investment thesis holds & will continue to accumulate if it is the case, sell otherwise. It’s that simple.
All companies won’t be treated equally though, because they simply aren’t equal.
The green assets will be bought through a classic DCA, as long as they trade below what I judge to be a fair buying price. Some companies - not many, deserve this treatment.
The orange ones will be bought only after signs of bottoms - long timeframe ranges around fair price. Patience will be required for them.
I’ve said many times that price action shouldn’t be ignored, it is the only edge retails have over Wall Street’s manpower. Alone, I simply cannot follow more than a handful of companies perfectly, I cannot follow every news, etc... Price action will tell me what the market believes, fears & loves. It’d be stupid to ignore such information.
Here’s an example on Bitcoin.
The market decided to set the bottom around $16,000 in 2022. Could anyone have guessed it? No. But the trend clearly changed after that, and I personally started to buy a bit earlier as we had weeks maintaining around $19,000. This is the kind of signals I’ll be waiting for on the orange names. Not the perfect bottoms. But signs that buyers are stepping up under what I juge fair prices. I won’t catch the perfect bottoms, but I won’t buy falling knives.
The red ones will be on opportunities. They will follow the same rules than the orange but with a lower priority.
From there, nothing left to do but sit tight & control the thesis as they continue to play out. It seems simple but it really isn’t.
Here’s the list.
This list & the buying prices are only based on share price, growth assumptions & multiples. I’ll make a specific case for Palantir which I will start buying above $35 because the company deserves a premium for its business.
I still believe we will enter a recession - or already are in one. Consumption will reduce & some growth assumptions will change. It is impossible to make perfect assumptions so I did what I could with what I had, this is why I will remain patient on some names, wait for the market itself to tell me the selling is over or at least slowing. If by then the fundamentals remain strong - which we’ll know because we’ll follow those companies closely, then I’ll be a buyer.
You have the data. Now the argumentation.
My Long Term Narratives.
I will focus on for the next decade & the companies which should continue to impact the world. There’s no point being a hero & trying to find the perfect growth diamond in those conditions, focusing on falling blue chips is probably the best method as those will also be the first ones to bounce back.
We’ll have time to look at others later if things go as I think they will. So for now, let’s focus on quality. Disruptive sectors. Strong fundamentals. Great companies. Great managements. Names which should remains strong during the next decade.
How will the world be in a decade?
There are no answers. Each will depend on whom you ask the question to. But I think we have some indications with how things are shaping today. Here’s my take, two words: Artificial Intelligence - mostly but not only.
I’m not original & I know this but again, there are no needs to be original to make money. We have & will continue to have disruptive & wonderful companies at low price. Why not just pick ’em up.
But AI is much more complex than just Nvidia. It isn’t yet, but will become an entire ecosystem which I personally believe will transform the internet. It will require many verticals & give many opportunities.
Here are mines.
Before diving, we gotta talk about the two first lines.
Bitcoin.
I won’t spend too long on this one because there’s no point. Everything is detailed here & I believe the world is finally waking up to the asset. Not considering it is a mistake & refusing to learn about it is just not serious.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinions. This is mine. In case you want to at least learn what makes Bitcoin special & really important, everything you need is in the investment case above.
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF.
As a reminder, this is the Chinese tech & e-com ETF holding most of the biggest AI & Cloud companies and the biggest e-commerce platforms. I have said & detailed many times why I was bullish on China & the tariffs just made it clearer to me that they will continue down their actual path.
I know a lot of people refuse to touch China & I understand why. Here’s my detailed take & I believe it is worth considering it. As for Bitcoin, ignoring opportunities isn’t the right strategy. It is fine to disagree but not to ignore.
Energy.
I said many times that energy was the heart of the economy & it seems that many in governments & the market forgot it. Nothing happens without energy, so everything starts here.
In a few words.
“The bull case is pretty straightforward.
The world evolves & our energetic needs constantly grow. Some countries are able to build complex & efficient infrastructures while others will increase their use of fossil fuels to meet their needs. Over the long term, energy consumption is bound to grow exponentially as developed countries enhance their quality of life and developing countries catch up, always growing their base consumption.
Asia is growing rapidly and will continue to improve its infrastructures and the quality of life of its population. The United States will grow their needs to fuel AI computing power & potential reindustrialization infrastructures. I also expressed my view on Latin America, which, if the dollar weakens in the coming months or years, will be able to invest again in its infrastructures and need energy to do so. I also hope that the E.U comes back to its senses & invest in its independance, something which the war in Ukraine should have pushed them to do, but it seems they'd rather become dependent on someone else…
The demand and need for energy around the globe won't slow down. It will at best remain stable, but most likely increase as our new ways of life need more energy. This is the fundamental bull case.”
You have a numerous number of ways to play energy. But I focus on two:
Fossil energy - gas & oil. The traditional commodity, used by most countries. Infrastructures are set up & their consumption won’t slow down. You already know the blue chips here with companies like Exxon Mobil, Shell, Total… I personally focused the Energy Investment Case on the need for energy with ETFs like AMLP & XES. Everything’s detailed below.
Nuclear energy - mostly uranium. Whatever people say, this has to be the future as we simply do not have alternatives yet. It might come, but we’re far from it. As detailed in the write-up, the industry is messy & we have no idea who has the upper hand. What we know is that everyone will need enriched uranium, hence this industry being the logical focus for me through Centrus & Cameco. I did not share any buying price for them because the industry remains special & hard to forecast, focusing on the market price action seems to be a better indicator - market’s smarter than me either way.
I wrote everything there is to know in this Investment Case with other verticals like renewables & storage. I still have the same opinion, so you guys can go over it if it interests you.
Lots of ways to play the energy sector & it shouldn’t be ignored.
Artificial Intelligence | Infrastructure.
It became crystal clear these last years that Artificial Intelligence is here to stay & will bring many incredible use cases to the world. We’re getting used to ChatGPT and have some fun with MidJourney to create images, start to use some intelligent features & love to have a car which drives itself.
But it also is crystal clear that we’re only scratching its real potential.
Artificial Intelligence is built on models. A new kind of software created after being fed terabytes of specialised data which can come from everywhere & be about anything, depending what the model will need to do - exactly like future architects learn in architect school, not art school.
This process of creating models & using them requires the most optimized & energy-intensive infrastructures the world has ever seen - hence the importance of energy. Obviously, some companies focused their business on providing this hardware.
If you believe AI is here to stay & will get even better, then the world will need more, bigger infrastructures. And as the stocks of companies specialised on this get smashed on pessimism & not fundamentals… Well, you get the gist.
ASML & TSM.
The first isn’t on the list but it very well could be, as those companies are the first & second step from any technology actually existing.
ASML sells the world’s most advanced lithography equipment - machines that use light to etch circuits onto semiconductors. These circuits then control the flow of electricity within the components. They can produce incredibly precise and small circuits, measured in single-digit nanometers - 10,000 times smaller than a human hair width, with accuracy to the nanometer.
Here’s what those machines look like inside. They’ll be closed up before being sold & then controlled by a single monitor, but I think it’s nice to see the inside of the beast to have an idea of the complexity we’re talking about.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is one of ASML primary customer & uses their machines to manufacture the smallest, most advanced semiconductors on earth. Those are tiny pieces of material - usually silicon, turned into electronics by etching circuits onto it, in order to allow currents, block some or amplify others, etc… handle charges based on what is needed.
TSM’s job is to take their clients’ designs & requirements and manufacture the semis, their work is responsible for most of the tech advancements over the last years like the miniaturisation of most tech - notably smartphones, but also making possible the massive growth of computing power.
These two companies are the base layer of technology since years, and now the base of Artificial Intelligence, High Power Computing & every related growing sector like humanoid robots, IoT etc…
I do not have investment cases written for them but I might consider it if you guys are interested. Keep in mind that these are cyclical businesses, with a fluctuating demand depending on the actual need which usually comes in waves. But as physical AI grows & we hear more & more about humanoid robots or self-driving cars… The demand for those hardwares shouldn’t slow any time soon.
Accumulation.
I did not put ASML on the list because I’d rather buy & hold TSM. But you guys could consider it if interested, this is a personal choice - can’t buy everything.
TSM is in orange because of its cyclicality which makes it very hard to predict future growth. Probably better to let the market tell me when it’s done selling & start chipping in then.
Valuation doesn’t matter during a bear market, only liquidity & psychology do. Until both give signs of shifting, there’s no point rushing.
Nvidia.
Those semiconductors are then used by many companies, the most important one right now being Nvidia & its GPUs. Everything you need is detailed below.
A rapid overview would be that AI requires GPUs for training & inference, and Nvidia is providing the best solutions for both with its competitive advantage lying in their CUDA system, which has no competition & allows its clients to tailor the usage of their GPUs above competition.
I remain overly bullish on the need for Nvidia’s GPUs because I am overly bullish on AI. We have an idea of what training requires in terms of compute, but have no clue what inference will require once AI is used widely with more complex models. We had a preview of what could be some days ago during the Ghibli mania, and if anything it did point toward “we don’t even have enough to handle a social media trend”. So… Probably not enough for real-world use cases by billions…
We could talk about AMD, the principal competion, and there’d be lots to say. But the conclusion would remain that even if they compete in terms of hardware & pricing, they do not compete in terms of final compute mostly because of CUDA.
AMD could become a cheap alternative to Nvidia for tasks which do not require the best of the best, but as we are building infrastructures I believe companies focus on the best only. It remains important to keep an eye on it & on how they will develop, and you can count on me to do so.
Accumulation.
Nvidia is a cyclical company with competition, at least for its hardware part. But as I said, as we are still building infrastructures, companies will only want the best as the contrary could mean falling behind. And the best is CUDA.
I am ready to buy monthly because I believe Nvidia will remain one - if not the, of the biggest winners of AI for long. This is about building a position in one of the best companies of the world. Timing won’t matter in a decade.
Arista Network & Palo Alto.
ASML, TSM & Nvidia are the key actors for computing power hardware but they are not enough for AI datacenters. I do not have investment cases written for these two but I could dive into it later if you guys are interested. For this write-up, I’ll leave it at Nvidia’s hardware isn’t enough to build optimized & secure AI infrastructures.
That’s where these two shine. Arista is the new Cisco & will sell hardware capable of interconnecting everything together in an optimized fashion, while Palo Alto will add a security layer to the entire infra - the best one. An AI datacenter will require more to be perfect, but these are the most important components & these companies are the best at it.
Accumulation.
Both are in orange because they are the best at what they do for now, but evolve in a very competitive landscape without strong entry barriers & it is hard to be certain others won’t catch up in the next years.
If by the time the stock bottoms, they remain the leaders, then I will buy in. Until then, it’s better to only control the thesis & be patient.
Artificial Intelligence | Enhanced Companies.
The first part was about companies making AI possible. This part is about companies leveraging AI to create products & services.
Palantir.
Probably the company I am the most bullish on right now. Many continue to think Palantir is a pump & dump or a bubble. But it isn’t, and exactly like Bitcoin & China, there are no excuses to not inform ourselves.
Everything you need is detailed here.
The bottom line being no other companies propose what they do. Selling AI models trained on companies’ internal data in order to become their “Operating System”. Tremendous value, something we rarely see.
Many compare it to Microsoft who gave everyone a tech which allowed us to do so much more. I believe Palantir is indeed an equivalent, only much more powerful & applicable to every company around the world.
I believe there will be a difference between the companies using Palantir. And the companies wihtout Palantir.
Accumulation.
As said earlier, the fair price presented at the beginning is based on growth, multiples & profitability, not including any premium for the business. And again, this could be the company I am the most bullish on.
On another hand, the hype has been so big around the name lately that it could easily be smashed to the ground. It has been pushed on optimism, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it crushed on pessimism.
But I will be a buyer as long as fundamentals remain strong.
I personally intend to start nibbling around $50 or so. But if the market were to not give me this price while showing signs of bottoms, I’d buy in no matter what. We’re far from this situation so no reasons to rush for now. I’ll keep you posted, and you either way can see when I start buying on the portfolio.
Meta.
The giant which somehow controls the world. The biggest advertisement platforms with billions of daily users. One of the biggest network effects on the planet. And a company which continues to innovate, not afraid to try things.
Sure, during a recession advertising will slow down & could slow down big time. But will users stop using Instagram, Facebook, Threads or WhatsApp? Don’t think so. Will this potential recession be here forever? Don’t think so. Will they stop improving monetization & their apps? Don’t think so. Will they continue to work on AI tools & try to bring AI-enhanced hardware to the world? I think so.
Network effect doesn’t care about the economy.
Accumulation.
Another one of my biggest convictions as you know. One I’ll gladly buy as the shares go lower, one I’ll gladly hold through -50% while I increase my DCA. One I love to follow & will continue to use its products, daily.
A no-brainer to me.
Tesla.
Nothing surprising to have Tesla here. Many say that their EV business is struggling, that BYD is selling more & other bearish arguments. There sure are.
But as I’ve said many times, the bull case isn’t with EVs but with the impact of FSD on EVs, as the best autonomous driving system for individuals, and the release in China kinda proved it. And Optimus over the long term.
Tesla also has some of the biggest & most optimized AI datacenters but also the best manufacturing system with its giga factories, all around the world. FSD is much better than competition & proves they know how to build physical AI models, with Optimus being the next step. Once/if this happens, they are in a better position regarding manufacturing & shipping those robots.
Accumulation.
It is honestly impossible to value Tesla as FSD & Optimus could change everything when they are widely shipped - we’re not that far anymore for the first.
Tesla is an optimist play, betting that the company is capable of being the first & the best at their R&D products. If so, there are no reasons not to accumulate because a company winning the autonomous vehicle system & the humanoid robot market is simply going to be one of the biggest companies of the world.
Google.
I know lots believe that LLMs will disrupt its search business but I still am really not on board with this thesis. Most people will just have an AI answer on their Google search query, nothing more.
Also needs say that all queries aren’t valuable. We’ll use LLMs for simple questions, what is this or explain me that. But valuable queries like “bakery next to me” aren’t working well there & I don’t see why anyone would use LLMs for this either way.
So… Monetizable queries will certainly stay on search. Through AI, yes. But on Google.
Accumulation.
I have a reason not to put Google green though: Meta.
I personally am not afraid of ChatGPT or LLMs, but I have concerns with Llama being available through Meta’s apps. What if their billions of users could shop directly in app? This could be an issue for Google, not for Search but for their traffic.
I might be a bit far-fetched but besides that point, I believe Meta is a better company either way & would rather accumulate it than Google.
Adobe.
There are lots of fear lately that AI is going to disrupt many established companies in some key sectors, creativity being one of them. I agree that AI will transform industries but I do believe great companies with smart management already established will remain leaders, as they won’t stay behind innovation.
You will find my entire argumentation below!
Those established companies have the advantage of already having a huge pool of users and to know their needs. They can focus on delivering a much better experience than any others, because they know what to do.
Accumulation.
But I do not want to be pretentious & accumulate too early. There are risks, and even if we had two years of image generation proving that it won’t be enough to disrupt Adobe, who knows?
Being patient. Waiting for the market to set a bottom & if fundamentals remain strong then, I’ll be a shareholder.
Duolingo.
I’m a big fan of the owl & have been a user. I know people with hundreds days streak & I am 99% sure that no technology will disrupt speaking more than one language. Conversation isn’t about word-to-word translation. Even real-time translations will fail to communicate intonation, feelings, mimics, accents & much more.
Bottom line? You can get laid speaking a shaky English with an accent, it’s charming. You won’t by using an automatic translator. That’s what life is about.
Plus, Duolingo will leverage AI for automatic conversations, exercises & many more features which will, in time, make learning better & faster. I see no reasons why this shouldn’t continue & would also write an investment case if you guys are interested by it - feel free to tell me.
Accumulation.
I am pretty confident in my assessment but also have better companies to accumulate for now, fundamentally. As much as I believe Duolingo is a wonderful service & company.
I’ll just be patient on this name. It is a growth stock. And can go very low. Again, valuation doesn’t matter in a bear market.
Airbnb.
I am a big fan of this company, its management & services and am a big consumer as I’ve always preferred the experience the platform proposes to Booking’s hotels. There is no competition to what Airbnb does. You can find a roofs on many platforms, but you can’t find experiences.
And as AI becomes widely adopted, Airbnb will be able to build its own models & leverage terabytes of personal data on its clients. We’re not talking about names & birth dates, but about preferences, habits & destination targets to be able to model the perfect holidays in a few clicks, from where to go to where to stay, passing through what to do.
Accumulation.
Airbnb is still about tourism. And we might enter a recession & for sure enter a period of lower consumption. The company will get worse before getting better in my opinion. No reasons to rush, let’s wait for the market to tell us it is ready.
Consumer Centric.
The companies below are based on consumer strength & buying power. The period we are in won’t be the best for them so the objective will be to keep an eye on & monitor, wondering if the weakness is with the fundamentals or the economy.
So I won’t detail the accumulation process.
Netflix.
This bad boy might be the only one not answering the description above as I am fairly certain that most will accept to eat less to keep their Netflix subscriptions. I don’t have an investment case because I haven’t been the biggest fan of the company, but I have been proven wrong & I try to correct that mistake.
If I get the opportunity, I’ll buy in. They succeeded at building such a network effect & turned it into a cash machine. Incredible.
Uber.
Everything is detailed here as the write-up is fairly recent.
Laziness is the new normal & I don’t see why this would change while Uber’s network effect forces restaurants, drivers & users to be part of the platform & autonomous vehicles & deliveries will make everything better, with higher margins.
No reasons to ignore this name to my opinion.
On Running.
I discovered On two years ago now. For some real-life context, I did some shopping this weekend and the small brand which had like 10 sneakers exposed in the biggest mall two years ago, now has an entire wall with a hundred of them displayed. It also took the premium space in many stores I passed in front in the city center.
We are talking about a premium brand hence premium prices. As consumption slows the brand might struggle, even more depending on tariffs. We’ll need to monitor what is a brand issue & what is an economy issue.
And when confirmation comes that the brand remains strong, I’ll be buying.
Olo.
I am still very bullish on Olo long term but I have to admit that the company has been a bit slow deploying & executing. Maybe because my expectations were too high, maybe because things are indeed slow.
But Olo Pay is still fairly recent & I need to see what happens when it rolls out. I still believe they are in the right business & restaurants need an upgrade.
Healthcare.
Now we enter the opposite sector: A recession-proof one as, even if consumption lowers, people healthcare.
Hims & Hers.
Wellness has become a very big focus lately and Hims chose to capitalize on this demand & to add a layer of new technologies above the classic need for drugs. Personalization above everything. An online platform tailored for you.
I believe Andrew Dudum when he says that Hims will disrupt healthcare as much in terms of quality of service than quality of products.
Accumulation.
I have a few reasons not to put Hims green yet though. First, the market continues to focus on the GLP-1 narrative & with the potential lawsuits coming Hims’ way, we could ceertainly go lower on pessimism.
Second, Hims remains a growth story and as I’ve said a few times already, in a liquidity crisis, valuation does not matter. Even less for growth stocks.
I do not have much doubt that Hims can become a really big name in the future but as we have lots of uncertainty, I’d rather be cautious short term. I’ll start buying a bit later, when the dust settles as after what Hims went through, I believe it will need a few months to do so.
Transmedics.
On the contrary, a company focused on delivering end-to-end optimized transplants based on a new & disruptive hardware, capable of conserving organs long & in a better environment than classic methods, should not feel a recession too much, especially as the U.S. government confirmed many times that both Medicare & Medicaid won’t see reduced spending.
Everything isn’t perfect as we still have competition & some regulatory concerns, coupled with some growth issues and some R&D which still have to prove itself before calling Transmedics a disruptive company.
But potential is here. And it’s huge.
Accumulation.
I did put Transmedics in orange because it is still viewed as a growth stock & growth took a hit lately. But! The stock front-ran the market & has actually been really resilient during the sell-off, holding easily its local bottom around $55.
We are largely under fair value to me, and even if everything isn’t perfect, the market isn’t selling the name aggressively anymore & I see no reasons not to start buying it.
So I buy.
Conclusion.
Once again, the next months and maybe years could be tough. Even if were to avoid a recession, it will take time for most market participants to trust the government again & reattribute liquidity to risk assets. We sure should have bounces & see optimism come back but I don’t think we’ll see ATHs any time soon.
Until clarity isn’t back, nothing should happen. The rest doesn’t matter & there are no reasons to panic or to be concerned about the noise. I will continue to comment on it because it interests me & is important for the active portfolio, but it won’t change my methodology for the Buy & Hodl portfolio. Two very different subjects.
This is the plan. I intend to follow it as long as I believe that those companies won’t die. And as long as I believe the U.S. will have to focus on its stock market, which again, is its foundation. I don’t think any will happen before long.
A clear & boring plan, easy to understand but hard to execute & stomach. But that’s how it is, hard times are when maximum opportunities happen.
Let’s seize them & make our future selves proud.
I haven't found any real substitute for ASML or TSM, they're years ahead of the competition - just like tesla and all the road data they've gathered. Definitely on my watch list
This aged like milk. Almost all the picks got rekt